Abstract
The seasonal precipitation (SP) trend and its sensitivity to teleconnection patterns over the
East Mediterranean (EM) region remain inconsistent. Based on rainfall records during 1974–2016 at
seven meteorological stations in the Gaza region, this study aims to (1) analyze the observed SP trend
over the Gaza region, and (2) examine the SP sensitivity to climate indices. Pearson and Spearman
correlations between climate indices and SP in the current and following years were calculated, and
the seasonal period (particular month) with the highest correlation was identified. Results show that
the climate indices, with greater impact on SP over the Gaza region in the autumn and spring, were
in the order; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) > North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) > Arctic Oscillation (AO). The indices’ impact was minimal in the winter
precipitation. ENSO types’ correlations (Southern Oscillation Index-SOI and Niño 3.4) were moderate
and significant at α = 0.05. Rainfall at most stations positively correlates with AO and EAWR in
spring and autumn. During the study period, warm phases of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) intensified
autumn precipitation. Simultaneously with warm phases of EAWR or AO, more influence on autumn
precipitation is exerted. Cold phases of ENSO (i.e., La Niña) have an adverse impact compared to
El Niño. EAWR co-variation was evident only with the ENSO. Regarding AO, a non-meaningful
action was noticed during the neutral phases of ENSO and EAWR. The findings of this study help
understand and predict the seasonal trend of precipitation over the Gaza region. This is essential to
set up climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the EM region.
Keywords
Climate change
Seasonal precipitation
NAO
ENSO
AO
EAWR
East Mediterranean